Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev have agreed to cut the number of their deployed nuclear weapons by 25%. Photograph: Michael Reynolds/Maxim Shipenkov/EPA
by John Kampfner
They are not what they might be, but they are better than they could be. The conclusion of a nuclear arms reduction agreement after months of protracted and often fraught negotiations, suggest that relations between the US and Russia appear to be moving towards a position of grudging co-operation.
The deal, cutting each country’s arsenal of strategic warheads by about 30%, is in many ways reminiscent of the processes of the cold war. As a foreign correspondent, I remember covering various summits which, with all their panoply and with the eyes of world watching, saw American and Soviet leaders put pen to paper on some dramatic accords. Barack Obama will do the same with Dmitry Medvedev in Prague on 8 April.
The weapons cuts are significant, but they still leave both countries massively over-endowed with the possibility to mutually destruct. This military absurdity is part of the curious quaintness of the relationship. Washington, to put it bluntly, is not nearly as exercised by its relationship with Moscow as it was in the 1970s, 80s and 90s. At its worst, it regards the relationship as an irritant. It would rather deal with Medvedev, but knows that the major decisions must be squared with his notional underling but actual boss Vladimir Putin, the prime minister.
Putin has long felt let down by the US. I remember talking to him for some time in 2004 during a late-night session at his country residence with a group of international journalistic and academics. He spoke of his sense of betrayal at having “persuaded” central Asian leaders to give the Americans use of their military bases for the post-9/11 invasion of Afghanistan, and having received in return only the ignominy of seeing the US seek to build missile defence shields in Poland the Czech Republic, and seek to prise Georgia and Ukraine into Nato. The Americans, for their part, watched aghast as Putin unravelled most of the political reforms and human rights improvements of the Yeltsin years.
Obama has little of George Bush’s zeal, having gone cold on the missile defence plan, distanced himself a little from the Georgians and watched as the Ukrainians have moved back more into Russia’s sphere of influence.
His pledge to press the “restart” button with Russia is a sober assessment of a relationship he knows will not be warm, but he wants to be devoid of unnecessary problem. He would like, although does not need, Russia’s assistance in a number of areas, but he knows that the real power broker now is China.
The most important motive for the nuclear deal is the signal it seeks to send to the “great proliferators”, notably Iran. The Obama-Medvedev signing ceremony will be followed by two international conferences, on nuclear security and non-proliferation. Welcome though the deal is, the Americans and Russians are unlikely to make much immediate progress with the Iranians.
Source: The Guardian
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